Vol. I · No. 229Instrument view ↗

The Casco Bay Report

Wind, water and sky between Portland Head Light and Bailey Island — read off the instruments each hour and set down in plain language.

Monday, August 17·Today’s reckoningCompiled 5:04 PM EDT

The State of the Bay

Taken at the hour from the harbour sensors, the offshore buoy and the forecast grid.

65°F
mainly clear
feels 63°
The air
Dew point62°
Humidity92%
Cloud cover43%
Visibility25.1 mi
Barometer1010.8 mb
steady
Sun strength0.3
low
Fog84 of 100
likely — warm air over cold water
The wind

out of the south-southeast

NESW13KNOTSgusting 15
Force 4 · Moderate breeze
SSE · 168°

long fetch. Onshore off the Gulf. Builds steady sea and pushes swell into the outer islands.

59°F
water — cold
Cold
The sea
Significant height2.6 ft
slight
Dominant period5 s
Ground swell2.3 ft
at 5 seconds
Current at the entrance0.5 kt
ebbing, setting SE

Wind is running against the tide. The seas will stand up short and steep — worse than the height alone suggests, and worst at the harbour entrance.

Cold-shock response is real here. Wetsuit recommended; survival time 1–6 hours.

The Tide at Portland

AVERAGE RANGE

Predicted from NOAA station 8418150 and checked against the measured water level. Heights are feet above mean lower low water.

9.0ft
and ebbing
-1.86 ft/hr
TideTimeHeight
Low9:34 PM0.3
HighTue3:47 AM9.1
LowTue9:49 AM0.7
HighTue4:07 PM9.6
LowTue10:27 PM0.7
HighWed4:40 AM8.5
Next low9:34 PM
4h 30m from now
Range today9.7 ft
107% of the 9.1 ft mean
Against prediction+0.83 ft
Water is running high — wind setup
024681012 PM4 PM8 PMTue4 AM8 AM12 PM4 PM9.93:19 PM0.39:34 PM9.13:47 AM0.79:49 AM9.64:07 PMNOW

The Sun and the Moon

13h 54m of daylight, losing 3 min a day

Computed for 43°42′ N, 70°09′ W — the middle of the bay, between Long Island and Chebeague.

The sun
First light
civil dawn
5:16 AM
Sunrise
golden until 6:26 AM
5:47 AM
Highest
59.6° above the horizon
12:44 PM
Golden hour
the good light
7:01 PM
Sunset
7:41 PM
Last light
full dark at 9:30 PM
8:11 PM

The sun stands 27.1° up, bearing 262° — w of you.

The moon

Waxing Crescent

26.8% lit · 5.1 days old

Rises11:26 AM
Sets9:40 PM
Next fullAug 28
Next newSep 10
Feeding periods49

The old solunar reckoning: fish move hardest when the moon is on the meridian — overhead or underfoot — and again at its rising and setting. Lay a major period over a running tide and that is your hour.

PeriodFromTo
Moon underfootmajor3:20 AM5:20 AM
Moonriseminor10:56 AM11:56 AM
Moon overheadmajor3:35 PM5:35 PM
Moonsetminor9:10 PM10:10 PM

Notices to Mariners

What would catch you out today, and what is worth going out for.

Fog likely

Elevated fog risk from 6:00 PM to 2:00 PM tomorrow. Warm air over cold water — the classic Casco Bay setup. Carry radar and sound your horn.

Wind against tide

Around 6:00 PM the breeze opposes the current. Seas will stand up short and steep — worse than the 2.5 ft height suggests, especially at the harbor entrance.

Wind peaks

SSE 13 kt, gusts 15 around 6:00 PM.

Water 59°F — cold

Cold-shock response is real here. Wetsuit recommended; survival time 1–6 hours.

Evening golden hour

Starts 7:01 PM, sunset 7:41 PM, civil dusk 8:11 PM. Day length is shrinking by 3 min a day right now.

Best window 11:00 AM tomorrow

NNE 7 kt, 1.4 ft seas, flood tide. Best combination of breeze and sea state in the next 24 hours.

Hour by Hour

The next day and night, read off the forecast grid and joined to the tide and the current at the harbour entrance.

HourWeatherAirWindGustSeaPer.TideSetCurr.RainVis.Fog
nowMainly clear65°SSE 13152.64s8.3ebb0.51%2581
6 PMPartly cloudy65°SSE 13152.54s6.2ebb0.91%2591
7 PMOvercast65°SSE 13162.45s3.7ebb1.01%2591
8 PMClear sky65°S 10142.35s1.6ebb0.91%2592
9 PMClear sky65°S 9102.25s0.5low0.62%2592
10 PMClear sky65°SSE 582.05s0.4low0.31%25100
11 PMClear sky64°SE 651.95s1.4flood0.11%25100
12 AMTueClear sky64°SE 651.85s3.3flood0.41%25100
1 AMOvercast64°E 561.75s5.6flood0.61%25100
2 AMOvercast64°ENE 561.65s7.6flood0.53%25100
3 AMOvercast64°E 661.55s8.8flood0.35%25100
4 AMPartly cloudy64°ESE 681.55s9.1high0.13%25100
5 AMMainly clear64°E 771.45s8.4ebb0.33%2.4100
6 AMFog64°NE 871.45s6.7ebb0.72%0.296
7 AMFog64°NE 891.45s4.5ebb0.94%0.496
8 AMFog64°NNE 681.45s2.4ebb0.93%0.896
9 AMOvercast64°N 6101.45s1.1ebb0.61%2580
10 AMOvercast65°NNE 7111.45s0.8low0.32%2580
11 AMOvercast65°NNE 7111.46s1.5flood0.03%2574
12 PMOvercast65°NNE 6101.46s3.1flood0.31%2563
1 PMOvercast65°NNE 591.46s5.3flood0.53%2578
2 PMOvercast65°NNE 391.56s7.5flood0.57%2566
3 PMOvercast65°NW 281.66s9.0flood0.34%2538
4 PMOvercast66°NNE 491.66s9.6high0.14%2652
5 PMOvercast65°ENE 391.66s9.2ebb0.23%2562

Sea in feet, period in seconds, tide in feet above mean lower low water, current in knots at the harbour entrance, visibility in miles, fog on a scale of one hundred.

From the Weather Service

The official word, printed as issued. Where this page disagrees with the bulletin, believe the bulletin.

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service · Gray, Maine
Zone ANZ153 — Casco Bay
Issued 2:36 PM EDT

.SYNOPSIS... High pressure slides south into midweek, with a cold front approaching the waters Wednesday evening. High pressure then returns for the end of the week.

.This Afternoon... S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

.Tonight... S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog in the evening, then areas of fog after midnight. Vsby 1 NM or less.

.Tue... NE winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Areas of fog in the morning with vsby 1 NM or less.

.Tue Night... E winds around 5 kt, becoming NW after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 NM or less.

.Wed... SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

.Wed Night... S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

.Thu... NW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

.Thu Night... SW winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.

Ashore
This Afternoon

Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66. South wind around 15 mph.

Tonight

Areas of fog after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Southeast wind 0 to 15 mph.

Tuesday

Areas of fog before 11am, then a slight chance of rain showers between 1pm and 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Northeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday Night

Patchy fog between 11pm and 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Northwest wind 0 to 5 mph.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. Southwest wind 0 to 15 mph.

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.

The Week Ahead

Wave heights run out past two and a half days — beyond that the marine model has nothing honest to say, and the column is left blank.

DayWeatherHighLowWindGustSeaRainMoonHigh water
TodayAug 17Overcast66°64°S 16263.017%Waxing Crescent27%2:55 AM · 3:19 PM
TueAug 18Fog66°64°NNE 8122.18%Waxing Crescent36%3:47 AM · 4:07 PM
WedAug 19Overcast86°64°SSW 10142.28%Waxing Crescent46%4:40 AM · 4:57 PM
ThuAug 20Heavy drizzle77°62°NE 791.712%Waxing Gibbous55%5:36 AM · 5:51 PM
FriAug 21Overcast79°60°SE 9104%Waxing Gibbous65%6:35 AM · 6:48 PM
SatAug 22Overcast79°61°S 81317%Waxing Gibbous74%7:36 AM · 7:47 PM
SunAug 23Heavy drizzle79°63°SSE 91141%Waxing Gibbous81%8:35 AM · 8:43 PM

From the Buoys and Gauges

Measured, not modelled. These are the actual instruments in the water, with the age of each reading.

StationDistanceWindSeaPer.SwellWaterAirAge
Portland Harbour
station 8418150, on the waterfront
S 1259.4°68.0°10m
Portland Lightship Buoy
buoy 4400712 nm southeast of portland — the bay's reference buoy
10.5 nmS 82.65s2.3 SSE60.4°64.2°24m
Western Maine Shelf
buoy 44030wind and air temperature on the western shelf
33.5 nmS 102.65s66.2°67.8°1h 34m
Jeffreys Ledge
buoy 44098offshore to the south — shows swell arriving from the gulf
54.2 nm2.64s0.3 ESE67.6°68.0°34m
Jonesport, Maine
buoy 44027down east — early warning for weather tracking southwest
128 nmS 123.06s1.6 SSW55.8°°34m
Freshwater into the bay
Presumpscot579 cfs
enters at Falmouth
Royal28 cfs
enters at Yarmouth
Androscoggin2,090 cfs
enters at Merrymeeting Bay

After rain the plume freshens and clouds the top few feet near the river mouths, and carries stormwater down with it for a day or two.

Air and sky
Air quality54
moderate
GeomagneticKp 2.7
no northern lights tonight

Casco Bay lies near 53° magnetic latitude. It takes Kp 6 or better before the lights clear the horizon, and you want to be off away from Portland’s glow — Chebeague, Cliff, or the north shore of Bailey.

Last reading 11:00 AM EDT

Colophon

Tides, currents and the harbour sensors are read from NOAA CO-OPS station 8418150 at Portland. Sea state is measured — not modelled — at NDBC buoy 44007, twelve miles southeast. The coastal-waters text is the National Weather Service bulletin for zone ANZ153, issued out of Gray. Forecast grids come from Open-Meteo, the geomagnetic index from NOAA SWPC, and river discharge from the USGS gauges. Sun and moon are computed here from first principles.

A planning aid and a pleasant read — not a navigational instrument. It replaces neither the official forecast, nor a chart, nor a working radio.

The instruments

  • NOAA CO-OPS tide predictions
  • NOAA tidal current predictions
  • Portland station sensors
  • NDBC offshore buoys4 reporting
  • Open-Meteo forecast grid
  • Open-Meteo marine grid
  • NWS active alerts0 active
  • NWS Coastal Waters Forecast
  • NWS narrative forecast
  • Open-Meteo air quality
  • NOAA Space Weather (Kp)
  • USGS river gauges

Set in Bodoni, Lora & Courier · Compiled 5:04 PM EDT